"Using Monte Carlo Simulation To Value Mineral And Energy Projects"

PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE COURSE
Monte Carlo simulation is becoming a popular tool in the valuation of natural resource projects. This course will review when Monte Carlo simulation is necessary and how to interpret the simulation outputs. It also covers the simulation of metals and energy prices, the distributions that represent cost, reserve and other project uncertainties, and cash flow discounting within a Monte Carlo framework. Participants will have a chance to work several hands-on examples using Crystal Ball software.

This three-day course in "Using Monte Carlo Simulation To Value Mineral And Energy Projects" will teach you how to:

THREE MAIN COURSE TOPICS:

Day 1 What Monte Carlo analysis can do, when it should be used, and how it should be used.

Day 2 How to build a valuation model that determines risk-adjusted project value and provides an outline of operating strategy given the uncertainties facing the project. This includes discussions regarding formulating discount rates; the concepts that allow a dynamic project environment to be represented within a valuation model; and the use of Monte Carlo analysis to calculate the influence of economic uncertainty, geological uncertainty, and political risk on project value.

Day 3 A demonstration of investment decision situations in the mining and petroleum industries for which Monte Carlo methods can provide new insights, and those for which these methods are not feasible or appropriate. Examples will include trade-offs between high-cost and low-cost projects, capacity choice, multi-zone mining and satellite oil field development, political risk impacts, and exploration or development deferral.

COURSE INSTRUCTORS
Dr. Graham A. Davis is Associate Professor of Economics and Business at the Colorado School of Mines. Dr. Davis has a bachelor's degree in engineering, an MBA, and a Ph.D. in mineral economics. He is recognized as an expert in applying real options to real world problems, and has undertaken real options valuation projects for government and private organizations worldwide. He teaches a 15-week graduate level course in Monte Carlo and real options applications in the mining and petroleum industries.

Dr. Michael Samis, P.Eng., is a leading practitioner of using advanced valuation methods such as real options to value natural resource projects.  He began his professional career in South Africa with positions in production, planning and valuation at several gold and coal mines.  While in South Africa, he completed a M.Sc. in Mineral Economics that focused on using real options to analyze project financing for marginal gold mines.  In 2000, Dr. Samis completed his Ph.D. at the University of British Columbia where his research considered the interaction between geological structure, capital and operating costs, flexibility and project uncertainty.  He has extended professional experience using stochastic valuation models to evaluate natural resource projects with complex forms of flexibility and risk exposures ranging from the exploration stage through to late-stage capital investments.  He also develops and leads professional development courses that discuss using advanced valuation methods such as real options to value and manage natural resource projects.  Dr. Samis is an Adjunct Professor at Laval University’s Department of Mining Engineering, a registered Professional Engineer in Ontario, Canada, and a qualified person for project valuation under NI43-101 guidelines.  Dr. Samis was previously the Director of Financial Services (Mining and Metals) at AMEC Americas Limited and is currently a Vice President (Valuation and Business Modeling) in the Toronto office of Ernst and Young LLP’s Transaction Advisory Service.

WHO SHOULD ATTEND
The course is designed for mining and energy industry engineers, managers, bankers, government officials, and analysts involved in evaluating or managing projects or dealing with investment risk.

Participants do not require advanced mathematical skills to understand and apply the course material. However, to get the most from the course, they should be familiar with:

REGISTRATION FEE The registration fee, which includes the course notes and coffee breaks, is US $1,200 if received 15 working days prior to the start of the course and $1,295 if received thereafter. The fee must accompany the registration form. Space is limited and early registration is encouraged. The sponsor reserves the right to cancel the course and return all registration fees if enrollment is insufficient. Cancellations will be charged a $150 service fee. No refunds will be made to participants who fail to substitute or cancel at least 5 working days before the start of the course. Participants will receive 2 CEU's for the hours of instruction included in this course. The course runs from 8:30 AM to 4:30 PM each day. Register

 

ACCOMMODATIONS, TRAVEL, AND MEALS
Registrants are responsible for their own lodging, food, and travel arrangements. Click here for accommodations information and for travel information. The course will be held on the Colorado School of Mines campus in Golden, Colorado.

COURSE CONTENT INFORMATION
For further information on course content, contact:

Dr. Graham Davis at gdavis@mines.edu or Dr. Michael Samis at michael.samis@ca.ey.com.

REGISTRATION INFORMATION