Residual Bias in a Multiphase Flow Model Calibration and Prediction
Slide 1 Title
Slide 2 Premise
Slide 3 Background and Outline
Slide 4 Location
Slide 5 Experimental Cell Layout
Slide 6 Side view of cell
Slide 7 The spill
Slide 8 Pre and Post-spill GPR images
Slide 9 1D GPR interpretation
Slide 10 Initial depth contours on perching surface and Saturation at 22 hrs
Slide 11 Residuals at 22hrs for initial conceptual model
Slide 12a Residuals at 22hrs for two zone conceptual model
Slide 12b GPR "pull-up" effect leads to interpreting lower elevations below source
Slide 13 Residuals at 22hrs for "flat" conceptual model
Slide 14 Calibration progress of those models
Slide 15 Possible error translating permittivity to saturation
Slide 16 Possible error: underestimating permittivity due to wave focusing
Slide 17 Synthetic 2D GPR modeling confirms under estimate of permittivity due to wave focusing
Slide 18 Lab experiments confirm wave focusing and "pull-up" effects
Slide 19 Interpretation is more accurate when timing versus amplitude is emphasized
Slide 20 These modifications in approach begin to reduce bias in residuals
Slide 21 ... reduce bias in residuals and yield K's closer to values measured on cores
Slide 22 Evolving conceptual models produce substantially different predictions and uncertainty
Slide 23 Conclusions