2021 Virtual Undergraduate Research Symposium
2021 Virtual Undergraduate Research Symposium
Do Largest Changes in Climate Correspond to Largest Drivers?
Do Largest Changes in Climate Correspond to Largest Drivers?
PROJECT NUMBER: 52 | AUTHOR: Drew Cornmesser, Applied Mathematics and Statistics
MENTOR: Piret Plink-Björklund, Geology and Geological Engineering
ABSTRACT
After reviewing data from the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) time period 55.8 million years ago, this project reviews similarities of the PETM with modern anthropogenic climate change in an attempt to model the largest drivers of said climate change. The primary focus of research consisted upon causes of the increase in atmospheric carbon levels during the PETM and their implications on the Earth during that time period. Current trends indicate that we are undergoing an unprecedented increase in atmospheric carbon levels not seen since the PETM. This is cause for concern as carbon dioxide is ultimately absorbed by the sea, causing ocean acidification. Ocean acidification is a threat for the well-being of marine life. The PETM was responsible for the largest deep sea mass extinction in the last 93 million years due to ocean acidification brought on by rising atmospheric carbon levels. Studying the PETM is important as it yields a baseline understanding for how plant and animal species will react to climate change in the future.
PRESENTATION
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY
Drew Cornmesser is currently a sophomore student here at the Colorado School of Mines. He is currently working towards to obtain his degree in Applied Mathematics and Statistics, while also double minoring in both Data Science and the McBride Honors Program in Public Affairs. For this project, Drew aimed to apply his statistical knowledge to the real world problem of climate change. In his future works Drew hopes to again apply his knowledge of statistics and coding to real world problems in order to make the world a better and safer place for all.
Hey Drew. It is true that the PETM had global warming trends, but they were caused by many (other) factors of the time. In today’s anthropogenic pollution, what can we expect in terms of pollution geared towards the earth, climate zones, mean annual temperature, etc.? In other words, in what direction does it look like we are headed?
Hi Chad thanks for reaching out! With regards to where we are headed, it appears that we are headed towards a drastic increase in atmospheric carbon levels which will cause ocean acidification, and a rise in sea temperatures. This will cause coral bleaching, which coral reefs are vital for the protection of our ocean systems. And from the PETM ocean acidification and coral bleaching were some of the primary drivers of the largest deep sea extinction period in the last 90 million years. Now something to keep in mind is that the PETM occurred for around 20,000 years , so ecosystems had chance to adjust to rising carbon levels and there was still ultimately a mass deep sea die off. From the data we are seeing modern day, this increase in carbon is happening at an unprecedented rate which means that our ecosystems just do not have the time needed to adjust.
Drew, very interesting presentation! So based on your research, what do you think are the current largest drivers of increased carbon in the atmosphere?
Hi Nikki, thanks for the comment! So, this has a few different layers to it. First off, there are various man made (anthropogenic) activities that exaggerate carbon growth in the atmosphere. The first being cars, factories, things of that nature. Fun fact, since the Industrial Revolution carbon dioxide levels in the air have risen by about 40% – from 280 parts per million to 387 parts per million. The other major cause is cows! In a year, one single cow will emit about 200 pounds of methane into the air. Methane is around 30 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide, which makes it a major greenhouse gas.