Colorado drought outlook: When a bad snow year becomes a water-supply problem

Colorado and much of the Intermountain West are facing widespread drought, underscoring the region’s long-standing vulnerability to water shortages. While drought is often associated with a lack of rainfall, the story is more complicated in the West: snowpack, soil moisture, streamflow, groundwater, temperature and evaporation all influence how much water is ultimately available to communities, agriculture, ecosystems and industry.

The 2026 water year has highlighted the importance of mountain snow. A severe snow drought across the Western U.S. was made approximately four times more likely by human-caused climate change, according to a Colorado School of Mines-led study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, the snow drought was approximately 14 times more likely because of climate change.

Snowpack functions as a natural reservoir, storing water during the winter and releasing it as temperatures rise. When less precipitation falls as snow—or snow melts earlier—less water may be available during the summer months when demand is often highest. The consequences can extend from rivers and reservoirs to farms, forests, ecosystems, hydropower and communities across the West.

Drought also raises questions about how societies manage increasingly limited water supplies. Groundwater can provide an important buffer during dry periods, but aquifers can take years or decades to recharge. 

Colorado School of Mines researchers are approaching drought from many angles, including climate science, snow hydrology, watershed processes, groundwater, water economics, water policy and water-treatment technologies.